AAX Intelligence: BTC, DOT & KSM
29 Jan 2021
BTCBTC is currently in the process of a correction. Between October 1st 2020 to January 11th 2021, BTC rose from $11,000 USD to $42,000 USD. Naturally a correction is needed. The first correction occurred when BTC hit just over $20,000 USD, seeing BTC correct to the $17,500 USD region (-11.66% correction). We can see the meteoric rise of BTC from $11,000 USD below, with the magnitude of the move seen through the gradual angle increase of the blue curve. BTC/USD - from $11,000 USD to $42,000 USD.
BTC overhead resistanceBTC has seen substantial overhead resistance. This is a continuation of the descending resistance seen from the BTC symmetrical triangle earlier in the month. Current overhead resistance will be difficult for BTC to break, with four contact periods. Breaking above this would highly likely see BTC push towards $40,000 USD. BTC/USD overhead resistance
BTC current EWsFrom the first BTC correction ($20K - $17.5K USD) BTC has had an impulsive wave ((1),(2),(3),(4),(5). From here BTC has then entered into a symmetrical triangle, due to the impulsive wave ending BTC is now within an overall corrective move ((A),(B),(C). The end point goal for BTC with this corrective move is $27,000 USD. BTC/USD medium term EWs
$27,000 USD target$27,000 USD is the corrective target, firstly due to $27,000 USD being the 0.618 long term fibonacci retracement level. If drawn from the ATH ($42,000 USD) to $3,800 USD (2020 March COVID crash low), then $27,000 USD is the 0.618 support. $27,000 USD is also the EW (4) low point, meaning that this will highly likely mark the corrective end point. Finally support was also found at this level in early January, with the level providing resistance at the end of December. BTC/USD support
BTC potential formationsBTC is currently forming a potential descending wedge formation on the daily chart. This formation is a typically bullish formation and aligns with the target of $27,000 USD as shown below. BTC/USD The descending wedge formation also fits in with the current BTC short term formation. On the short term charts BTC is currently within a descending parallel channel. BTC is firstly looking to hit $31,250 USD, before likely rejecting this level to complete the channels wave (5). If BTC remains within this channel, it should send BTC down towards the $28,000 / $27,000 USD region. BTC/USD short term timeframe
BTC daily time frame indicators
|Gann HL||X||Gann HL has switched above BTC for the first time since August 2020. Bearish.|
|MA ADX||X||Like the Gann HL, the MA ADX has remained green through much of BTCs parabolic late 2020/2021 bull run. However this indicator has now turned from green to red and is therefore bearish.|
|SAR||X||BTC was unable to flip the SAR as it attempted to push above the symmetrical triangle at the start of the month. BTC has remained below the SAR ever since and is still bearish.|
|PPs||X||BTC is currently above the central PP which is bullish. However BTC has fallen from testing the R3 point to finding significant resistance at R1. Due to the downfall and heavy R1 resistance, the PP is therefore neutral.|
|Aroon||X||The Aroon has flipped, seeing the AU fall below the AD and is therefore bearish.|
|MACD||X||MACD had a negative crossover in the positive region and has remained bearish since $40,000 USD.|
|RSI||X||RSI is currently below 50 and has failed to break above on the second attempt. Bearish.|
|TRIX||X||The recent flash of green has quickly turned red, displaying lack of force from the bulls. Bears are currently in control with the TRIX bearish.|
|WWV||X||Like the TRIX, the WWV is red and bearish.|
|QQE MT4||X||Yellow line is underneath the red line, bearish.|
|EFI||X||EFI is currently below zero. BTC trying to push up towards wave (4) target of $31,250 USD (short term charts). This will see the EFI raise further towards the centre line before a potential fall.|
BTC conclusionOn the whole BTC is looking bearish, shown by the highly bearish indicator sentiment. It is however possible that BTC could see an early overhead resistance breakout. In this scenario the first target for BTC would be to see a break above $35,000 USD. If BTC fails to be caught in the $27,000 USD net, $25,000 USD is the following target. BTC is heavily tied to numerous alt coins currently (excluding mainly DeFi coins e.g. UNI & AAVE), therefore alt coins will likely see further price loss.
DOTDOT has seen highly positive price action since December 2020. From September 2020 to mid-December DOT had seen months of volatile sideways trading, this was until a break above $7 USD occurred at the end of December as shown below. DOT/USD DOT is currently in full stride, outperforming BTC and many other major alt coins at the start of 2021. DOT has risen from $4 USD in December to now sit at $15.6 USD, with DOT HODLers seeing substantial gains.
EWs DOTWhen looking at the EWs for DOT, it seems as though a retracement towards $12 USD looks likely, however DOT could find enough support at $14 USD before it propels itself higher. This target correlates with the BTC analysis and if BTC rebounds from the $27,000 USD target, DOT could see $32 USD if the EWs fulfill themselves. DOT/USD EWs
DOT short term targetThe short term target for DOT is $14 USD. This is due to $14 USD being the base of the ascending wedge which DOT negatively broke out of. A move towards $14 USD would see DOT lose 4.9% of its value. DOT/USD ascending wedge If DOT can break above the descending overhead resistance line and sustain itself above $14 USD, then the $32 USD target will be a 119% rise from the $14 USD resistance level. DOT/USD
DOT conclusionIn conclusion DOT is looking short term bearish and long term bullish. The long term target for DOT if the suspected alt-season is coming is $32 USD.
KUSAMAKSM has seen substantial growth since October 2020, increasing from $11 USD to $120 USD at the start of January. However since then KSM has seen a subsequent pullback to $98 USD, as shown below. KSM/USD KSM is potentially within a descending triangle currently sitting at stage (C) finding support at $90 USD. If KSM can hold $90 USD, then the next move for KSM should see the cryptocurrency hit $100 USD. A potential early breakout from this descending triangle at stage (D) is possible. If this occurs the immediate target for KSM is $110 USD and could see the creation of a double bottom formation. KSM/USD descending triangle
KSM price targets
|Price target||% gain from current position||Likelihood of being hit in medium term||Why this target?|
|$123 USD||+35%||Very high||Is the top of the descending triangle formation. If the likely positive breakout occurs, this target is extremely likely to be hit.|
|$130 USD||+44%||Very High||$130 USD is 61.8% of the pre-trend line of the descending triangle (originating from (E)). If the current bull run continues, it is highly likely that this level will be hit.|
|$155 USD||+72%||Medium||Is the 100% level of the pre-trend line. For this target to be hit KSM would need to see a major influx of capital.|
|$182 USD||+102%||Low||This is the 1.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the current ATHs. If KSM breaks above $155 USD, this is the next resistance level, so therefore is the next target.|
|$200 USD||+122%||Very Low||In the unlikely event that KSM breaks above all previously mentioned targets, $200 USD is the final potential target. The final $200 USD target is a psychological resistance barrier, similar to $20,000 USD for BTC.|
KSM conclusionIn conclusion KSM is looking bullish and looks set for some substantial gains come the end of February. The current descending (continuation) formation is bullish and should see KSM move positively out of the formation. However if KSM breaks below, it should be caught by the 0.618 retracement level and the S1 PP. A move below the 0.618 looks highly unlikely. With lots of cryptocurrency attention surrounding DOT, KSM looks set to follow the gains many think DOT will see.
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