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AAX Trends

AAX Intelligence: XRP, BTC & BAT

AAX Intelligence: XRP, BTC & BAT

News & Insights

10 Oct 2020

XRP has performed well since March, seeing a 100% retracement towards its yearly high in February.

XRP

XRP has performed well since March, seeing a 100% retracement towards its yearly high in February.

Year so far - XRP/USD

However, since mid-August, like most cryptocurrencies, XRP has bled seeing it lose 25% of its value.

XRP/USD - poor performance

Recently, XRP has shown signs of life. Between 23 September to 7 October, XRP has increased 12.5%.

XRP/USD - signs of life

XRP has recently broken a long-term trend line. This trend line stretches from 17/08/2020 and was broken on 26/09/2020. This trend line also has four validation points, with a fifth point retest which occurred recently.

XRP/USD - long-term trend line.

During a similar period, XRP has also had a long-term support line. This has less validation points leaving bigger room for variation than the descending resistance line.

XRP/USD - support line

This means that there is a combination of a long term support and resistance line, both of which are converging. As demonstrated below, this has created a descending wedge.

XRP/USD - Descending wedge

This descending wedge has been seen across different crypto markets. However, the descending wedge for XRP shows more conviction. Alongside this, the descending wedge has a very positive pre-trend.

As shown below, there is a long term positive trend, and a medium term positive trend.

XRP/USD - trends

XRP - Fibonacci

Due to XRP seeing a big retracement from 0.36 USD towards 0.22 USD, the Fibonacci can help determine whether XRP is still long term bullish. When looking at the Fibonacci it seems XRP is still bullish. This is due to XRP rejecting going further below the 0.5 Fibonacci level.

The 0.5 Fibonacci level has acted as major support for XRP. This could very much be the lowest price XRP could see until the EOY.

XRP/USD - Fibonacci

The previous descending wedge

The previous descending wedge occurred between May and July 2020. The price action after this wedge was impressive, seeing the price of XRP increase by 72% from the breakout towards the August high of $0.33 USD.

XRP/USD - previous wedge

Another XRP formation

If we go down towards the hourly charts there is a clear formation with XRP. The formation in question is the H&S formation. This H&S formation is inverted, so rather than the formation being bearish, it is bullish.

This formation, alongside the bullish breakout from the bullish descending wedge should act as a springboard for XRP.

XRP/USD H&S

This potential springboard effect can be seen below. Alongside the bullish formations, XRP has also bounced up from the 200-day SMA.

The first line of resistance that XRP will need to break is the $0.253 USD resistance. Once this is broken there is very little to stop XRP from rising towards $0.30 USD.

XRP/USD

Short-term bounces and resistance lines

Below, we can see that XRP is currently in a well-supported position. XRP has the $0.23 USD support line and alongside this XRP has the support line from the H&S blue line. XRP could also potentially use the orange line as support. The orange line has multiple points of validation.

These multiple layers of support is good news for those hoping for an XRP increase. XRP can use these support lines to pull itself above the $0.253 USD resistance level.

XRP/USD

Within this small area of price action XRP has formed another descending wedge, as shown with the red support and resistance lines.

This bullish descending wedge alongside the long and medium term bullish formations should see XRP have a great month, with substantial potential for gains.

XRP/USD - another descending wedge

XRP - flight path

Below is the potential flight path for XRP. If the H&S for XRP completes itself then a price target of $0.3 USD is realistic. This would require XRP to break through the $0.27 USD resistance level. If this were to be completed and XRP were to hit the $0.3 USD target, it would see XRP rise by 22% from its current position.

The potential route towards $0.30 USD is indicated below, using the fake green candles.

XRP/USD - flight path

The preliminary move towards $0.27 USD before $0.30 USD is again supported by the Fibonacci levels.

XRP saw its crucial 0.5 bounce, before finding support at 0.382. A move towards $0.27 or the 0.236 resistance level would see a 13% gain for XRP.

XRP/USD - critical bounce

XRP/USD indicators set one

Indicator Bullish Bearish Neutral
BBs X
SMA 200 X
MACD X
Gann HL X

XRP/USD indicators set one - BBs, SMA 200, MACD, Gann HL

XRP/USD indicators set two

Indicator Bullish Bearish Neutral
QQE MT4 X
SAR X
PnF X

XRP/USD indicators set two - QQE MT4, SAR, PnF

Indicators conclusion

When looking at the indicators, there is a clear bullish suggestion. All of the indicators are bullish, excluding the PnF.

Conclusion

Overall, there is a clear bullish sentiment for XRP. This should likely see XRP hit $0.27 USD before hitting $0.30 USD. However, anything is possible in the cryptocurrency world. If XRP decides to give the bears back the control, then $0.22 USD is the target.

BAT

Like XRP, BAT has also seen a bullish descending wedge. However BAT has shown considerably less conviction as it attempts to move up. BAT has been heavily reliant on the descending wedge support line.

The descending wedge support line for BAT is at $0.209 USD. There are then three points of contact with this support line. This demonstrates that the bears are still wrestling the bulls in an attempt to keep their control.

BAT/USD - descending wedge

BAT SMA 200

BAT has fallen below the 200 day SMA. This alongside the increasing pressure on the $0.207 USD support level could worry some in a bullish position.

However, if BAT pulls above the 200 day SMA, the bearish SMA sentiment will be lost.

BAT/USD support and resistance levels.

If BAT moves with the rest of the market which currently looks bullish, then these are the levels to where BAT will find resistance:

$0.241 - USD

$0.271 - USD

$0.319 - USD

$0.361 - USD

BAT/USD resistance levels

The descending wedge

Although there are a couple of bearish factors, the BAT descending wedge does have numerous points of contact.

As demonstrated below we can see that there are five on the descending support, while there are three contact points on the descending resistance.

BAT/USD descending wedge

BAT/USD indicators

Indicator Bullish Neutral Bearish
QQE MT4 X
SAR X
MACD X
Gann HL X
200 SMA X
MA ADX X
BBs X

BAT/USD - SAR, BBs, MA ADX, QQE MT4, Gann HL, MACD, 200 SMA

BAT conclusion

BAT is currently looking neutral. A bullish formation - yes - but the bullish formation currently lacks conviction. The indicators overall show a bearish sentiment. This feels somewhat skewed though due to the lack of BAT volatility recently.

BTC

After weeks of waiting we have finally seen what appears to be a decisive breakout for BTC. This is a breakout from the symmetrical triangle. The breakout which has occurred is bullish, with BTC attempting to push towards $11,000 USD. The symmetrical triangle had been since mid-August.

BTC/USD

Closer view of the breakout

When looking at the 30 mins candles, we can see how quickly and decisively BTC decided to breakout. Over five hours BTC increased 4%. Decisive.

BTC/USD - breakout

BTC Elliot Waves

If we look at the Elliot Waves, the recent breakout was an impulsive move. There were five steps, which allowed BTC to have the substantial surge which occurred.

BTC/USD - EWs 30 mins candles

If we look at the Elliott Waves for the symmetrical triangle, it fits perfectly. The breakout saw BTC leave the triangle at the end of movement (E).

BTC/USD symmetrical triangle

Long-Term BTC EWs

Below you can see the long term BTC EWs. Looking at this chart BTC looks set to make its move towards $12,000 USD. A bearish scenario looks highly unlikely, this is due to the underlying support for BTC.

From this chart the price prediction for December is $14,000 USD.

BTC/USD long-term EWs

BTC indicators

Indicator Bullish Neutral Bearish
PPs X
BBs X
SAR X
MACD X
QQE MT4 X
Gann HL X

BTC/USD PPs, BBs, SAR, MACD, QQE MT4, Gann HL

Indicator conclusion

In conclusion, the indicators are mixed. The usefulness of the indicators is questionable. This is due to the lack of volatility seen towards the end of the symmetrical triangle.

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